Cross-Posted FromThe End of the American Century.
I argue in The End of the American Century that the U.S. has already lost its global supremacy. But can it recover it? In
a globalized and interdependent world, both the country and the world are better off without a superpower.
There is, first of all, both a descriptive (factual) and prescriptive (value judgment) aspect to this question. Will the U.S. regain its superpower status? And should it do so? I believe the answer is negative to both questions, but the reasoning behind them are similar.
Some scholars have argued that the world needs a powerful and stabilizing force, and that the United States is the only country in a position to play this role. The British historian Niall Ferguson has made this case in his book Colossus, as has the U.S. political scientist Michael Mandelbaum in The Case for Goliath. And through much of history, there has been a big single power that has played this role in great swaths of the planet—Rome, Britain, Spain, the Ottomans, etc. All of those 
are now gone.
The 21st century world is different in several important respects. First, power and influence are more diffuse. There are numerous “rising powers”—China, India, Brazil, Iran, Russia, South Africa—and they are spread all over the globe. None of them want or need a super powerful country encroaching on their turf, or telling them how to behave.
Second, the world is more interdependent, particularly in economic terms—“flat” in Thomas Friedman’s evocative phrase. Prosperity and security are being built on trade, cooperation and compromise. Some countries are bigger and wealthier than others and will naturally play a more substantial role in this globalized community. A “superpower”—economic or military—distorts and destabilizes such a system.
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Energy is now synonymous with the future. We cannot talk about the the world in 2025 without having energy central to that conversation. But how do we prepare to talk about the future of energy beyond extrapolating the most obvious trends and new ideas?
Here are 5 disruptive shifts that could define the next fifty years of changes in energy systems:
-Pricing of Carbon
-Rise of Renewables leads to ‘Green’ Hydrocarbons
-Nanoscale science and engineering
-Tapping power of bio energy
-Energy’s entrepreneurial spirit
What’s happening?
The world is moving from bicycles to cars, and rice to protein
The good news is that many people are now aware of the biggest trends that are pushing the global energy sector to the limits. Most people will refer to challenges of China’s growth, peak production of conventional oil reserves, climate change, and need to shift towards renewable energy sources. 
Energy analysts try to sum it up in one sentence: Surging global demand has led to tighter supplies and higher costs for production of hydrocarbons (coal, oil, natural gas) and utility scale electricity generation.
If the slowdown of the global economy continues we might see a temporary drop in high prices, but sooner or later the situation will be back again as hundreds of millions of people uplift their lives and become ‘middle class’ consumers moving from traveling by foot and bicycles to cars, and from eating rice to protein based diets. Along the way their energy consumption patterns will change as they buy electronics and home appliances.
An even bigger problem? Those countries with the highest energy growth rates are more likely to have a policy of ‘grow at any cost’, including environmental degradation, unless they have serious alternatives that are low cost and easy to implement.
Our energy choices in the next twenty years will surely be among the most relevant strategic decisions of this century.
#1 Pricing of Carbon
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Global unification has not been welcomed in the past, biblically that is, but in the flattening world of today and tomorrow one language awaits us all: technology. 
The biblical tower of Babel is a symbol of unity. Back when everyone spoke one language it was built “for the glory of man,” and not to worship God. Stretching to the heavens, the prosperous city showcased the collective power of mankind. Angered by the audacity, God then confused human language and scattered the builders all across the Earth.
Today, we are seeing bodies like the UN functioning as unifying global entities, coordinating between countries at a higher level. In fact, futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts there will be a World Government by 2020.
This globalization faces many obstacles, the most basic of which is language. The soultion? Kurzweil argues that by 2019 language translation will be widely used. In fact, it’s already been deployed by the U.S. military. Using a program IBM developed, troops in Iraq automatically get Arabic-to-English translations. IBM is also using a program for translating television broadcasts in Arabic and Chinese.
Director of the International Center for Advanced Communication Technologies Alex Waibel says this translation technology is a decade away from being used commercially. Electrodes attached to the mouth and throat can pick up words even when they are only mouthed.
Waibel argues, “In the future, we could implant the electrodes into your mouth and throat if you want and have your mouth become multilingual.”
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Scenarios are stories about the future. They are not predictions or forecasts, but help us explore change and fundamentally different future landscapes.
The Forum for the Future has partnered with HP Research Labs on a new publication ‘Climate Futures
responses to climate change in 2030’ to explore the broad social, political, environmental and economic drivers affecting global markets and IT related industry sectors. [Download 76 page PDF 6 MB]
The five scenarios for 2030 include:
1. Efficiency first
Rapid innovation in energy efficiency and novel technologies has enabled a low-carbon economy with almost no need for changes in lifestyle or business practice
2. Service transformation
A high price of carbon has ushered in a revolution in how people’s needs are satisfied
3. Redefining progress
New priorities of ‘wellbeing’ and ‘quality of life’ are bubbling up across the world as more sustainable forms of living become established
4. Environmental war economy
Tough measures have been adopted to combat climate change,
pushing markets to the very limit of what they can deliver
5. Protectionist world
Globalization has gone into retreat and countries focus on security and access to resources at any cost
