A new generation of Americans, born in 1980-2000, is making a
grab for the reins of culture, business and politics. This
Millennial generation,
dubbed a Civic generation by scholars who study generational
patterns, is irreverent and highly pro-active, in contrast to the
vocal Baby Boomer generation that was not given the tools to
accomplish the widespread change they sought to effect.
According to generational theory
, political and cultural change is largely driven by the interplay
between different generations of humans each with different
characteristics. Leading generational theorists Strauss and
Howe have shown that the formation of distinct generations goes
back over 500 years and that they tend to repeat in clusters of
four, averaging 88 years – roughly one lengthy human lifespan, and
resulting in bursts of change every time a Civic generation comes
of age.
By throwing its weight behind its change-oriented predecessors
the Boomers and Generation X, the current Millennial generation is
set to tip the social balance toward action, as did the last Civic
generation during the Great Depression. How exactly might they
accomplish this? Mike Hais and Morley Winograd, co-authors of
Millennial Makeover: YouTube, MySpace and the Future of American
Poitics have some good thoughts about the potential impact of
the Millenial Generation: (cont.)
Are we due for a massive cyclical U.S. crisis that finally
spurs institutional change? A regular revolution not tied to the
accelerating curves driving so much growth and innovation?
In large nations big spurts of institutional change tend to
occur every four generations (roughly every 88 years, 1 generation
= 22 years) when economic resources trapped by out-dated,
inefficient systems are shifted over to efficient new systems once
societies reach a cyclical tipping point for change. Generational theorists Strauss and Howe
call this tipping point a fourth
turning, a point in time where social power shifts to the
generations too young to have witnessed the previous correction.
They liken this pattern to a forest growth cycle: 1) new saplings
take root, 2) the forest grows tall, 3) dead branches fall and
choke off new species, 4) lightning strikes, the brambles burn and
new saplings are free to grow—repeat.
As seen widely in biology, this sort of change is called
Punctuated
Equilibrium, which contrasts with the gradual evolution that
many scientists intuitively believed to be true but ultimately was
not supported by research nor the fossil record. Similarly, the
historical record shows that the United States has regularly
experienced punctuated social crises, aka fourth turnings,
stretching all the way back to its roots in England. And just like
all of the scientists that deny punctuated evolution/development,
there is a huge % of the population that does not intuitively
believe another fourth turning will occur because they have not
encountered the historical evidence and are used to a relatively
stable socio-economic situation. (Ironically, this blindness seems
to be built into the very fabric of our social system and may
result in more efficient growth when looked at from the broader
context of inter-meshed life systems on our planet.)
Like it or not, cyclical crises pegged to
human generations are real and
should be considered when evaluating the future, right
alongside accelerating change. So the questions we need to ask are
1) “When will the next fourth turning begin?”, 2) “Are there any
dynamics that might break or trump the pattern of punctuated
national change every 88 years?”
A Likely Fourth Turning Scenario
79 years ago, on October 24, 1929, the Great Wall
Street Crash sparked the Great Depression and the last U.S.
fourth
turning. What followed was the New Deal Era, WWII, the transformation of most U.S. socio-economic
sectors and ultimately the birth of what we now refer to as “The
American Dream”.
79 years later the U.S. economy is facing a variety of problems
that could spark a down-turn and a new fourth turning. (cont.)
What you're looking at is a robotic tank that is capapble of ruining your world. Built by twin brothers in Maine, the Ripsaw MS1 is capable of speeds up to 60mph, can perform maneuvers that would leave a crew bruised and battered, and can be outfitted with a remotely operated machine gun. On top of this, it's extremely rugged, easy to fix, and can caarry a payload of up to 2,000 pounds. This is one mean machine.
The crazy thing is that this was built by two guys in Maine for about $1 million dollars.
Generational theorists