How smart will humans become as change accelerates through
2020?
Futurists and sci-fi authors often present scenarios in which
humans interact with discrete artificial intelligence (like a robot
or software program that talks to us), but far less frequently
offer visions of
runaway human intelligence enhancement (people made smarter by
advances in communication, science & technology) and the
resulting cultural and behavioral changes. The most interesting of
these I’ve encountered include the rapid-time expanding-shrinking
problem-solving networks in Vinge’s Rainbows End,
Stephenson’s Metaverse idea,
Hesse’s Glass Bead
Game concept, Cascio’s participatory
Panopticon, the increasingly
smart mobs envisioned by Howard Rheingold, some of examples
listed in the ASF’s Metaverse Roadmap, and
what Richard Florida calls The Rise of the Creative Class .
But though each of these are important visions in their own right,
I remain a bit surprised at the overall lack of speculation re:
what it might be like for humans to gradually bootstrap their
intelligence over the coming years. 
Given the deluge of brain-enhancing, capability-extending new
technologies and ideas soon to be made widely available and
affordable, it’d be great to see more thinkers, writers, and
bloggers venture into the territory of plausible near-term culture
and Intelligence
Amplification (IA). Supported by a large body of consistent,
powerful growth trends and near-term predictions (check them out on
the Future
Scanner), a wide range of social scenarios could be generated,
many of which would be interesting, entertaining and ultimately
valuable to people working to navigate the future (aka, everyone).
In particular, I’d love to see/read simulations in which the most
plausible near-term intelligence enhancing technologies and
software are combined into believable slice-of-life vignettes.
What follows is a list of some powerful trends and technologies
(some broad, some specific, many related to information and
communication) that forward-thinkers might consider when developing
scenarios for how human culture and social cognition will change as
we approach 2020:
Drivers of Near-Term Intelligence Growth
WIDENING BANDWIDTH: Faster
internet connections,
pervasive WiFi – perhaps
syndicated through people’s mobile devices.
GROWING GLOBAL INFORMATION: The
amount of preserved digital data is
growing exponentially as we capture more information about
everything around us.
EVOLVING SOCIAL MEDIA: New
media structures on a wider and more fluid web are evolving to
better organize and process data. Portals like Wikipedia, Digg, Facebook, Medium, Twitter, FriendFeed, and Predictify are just the first
in a long wave of innovation that promises to convert massive
information into knowledge more efficiently.
VIDEO-to-VIDEO CHAT: Expect most cell phones to enable
video-to-video chat by 2012 or so. (cont.)
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Hello All & Welcome to Scenario Land!
Ever since I got hip to the reality of accelerating change I’ve been working to bridge that understanding to the masses. My string of efforts have included blogging, working with the Acceleration Studies Foundation on their powerful conference series and Metaverse Roadmap Project:, pitching TV shows about the future (in addition to Augmented Reality space adventures – think Big Brother meets Space Balls), and co-launching MemeBox with fellow futurist Jeff Hilford.
And now the real fun begins…
This blog, Scenario Land, is the culmination of my burning drive to make futurism more accessible to the people who just don’t have the time nor the interest to pore through awesome books like Mega Trends, The Fourth Turning, and The Singularity is Near. The intent is to strike a balance between entertainment and technical trend analysis, establishing a portal where creative and critical thinkers alike can engage the future together.
It’s a place where you can fearlessly share your thoughts on the world of tomorrow. Whether your strength lies in narrative story-telling, essay writing, illustration, composite imaging, comics, video, machinima or elsewhere, Scenario Land is a broadcast platform that can amplify your visions of the future. If you’ve got a big imagination and a desire to debate the road ahead, this is the place to make that happen.
I plan on using it to evolve my simulation of the future and sincerely hope you will do the same.
Continue Reading
October 15 2008 / by memebox / In association with Future Blogger.net
Category: Other Year: 2008 Rating: 3
MemeBox is proud to announce the launch of Scenario Land. Edited by futurist and Future Blogger co-editor Alvis Brigis, the new site tackles the future head-on through a provocative blend of speculative fiction and plausible trend-informed scenarios.
“Striking the balance between entertainment and empirical futurism, Scenario Land is a place where creative and critical thinkers alike can engage the future,” says Brigis, “Whether your strength lies in narrative story-telling, essay writing, illustration, composite imaging, comics, video, machinima or elsewhere, Scenario Land is a great outlet for sharing and debating visions of our future.”
As a branch of MemeBox’s FutureBlogger network, Scenario Land overlaps with other future-focused sister blogs including The Energy Roadmap (theenergyroadmap.com) and Future of Gadgets (launching soon). This unique system allows Scenario Land to retain a unique voice while also amplifying reach and inviting valuable perspectives from other niche focus areas.
“Change is accelerating, making it increasingly difficult to envision the futures ahead of us,” points out MemeBox CEO Jeff Hilford, “So our goal here at MemeBox is to create a rich, interactive playground that allows you to explore various trends and tomorrows. Scenario Land is a key part of our growing ecosystem where people can fearlessly speculate about and debate all things future.”
If you’ve got a big imagination for the future and want to contribute your thoughts about a rapidly changing world, Scenario Land is the place to get it all out and spread your powerful ideas.
Be sure to check out Alvis’ Welcome Post to readers and enjoy!
